Expected goals: Stats experts reveal how Premier League matchweek four games should have finished

Learn more about ‘expected goals’ below…

Monday, September 11, 2017

We are four matches into the Premier League season, and the table is starting to take shape.

As expected, Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea make up the top three sides, though surprise package Watford sit in fourth after their unbeaten start to the season.

Spurs are just outside the Champions League places, while Arsenal and Liverpool are further down following poor defeats in their opening matches.

Big results over the matchweek included the Reds’ first defeat of the campaign – 5-0 at Man City – and Man United losing their 100 per cent start to the season with a 2-2 draw at Stoke.

But, do the stats experts say the results from matchweek four were correct?

‘Expected goals’ is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match, with every shot taken given an ‘expected goal’ value based on the difficulty of the attempt.

Based on a number of factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders, the ‘expected goal’ value reveals the likelihood a specific shot will end in a goal; the higher the value, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot

The ‘expected goal’ value of every shot in a game is used to calculate the ‘expected goals’ (xG) of a match. Click here to find out more about the calculations used to work out xG.

Should a team end with a higher xG than actual goals scored, it is probable they were wasteful in front of goal due to poor finishing or an in-form opposition goalkeeper. If the real goals scored is higher than the xG, the team have been lucky to score so many in that match.

So, how did every team perform compared to their xG in Premier League matchweek four? Click the right arrow, above, to find out…

West Bromwich Albion

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